Parity Violation

Wow, well – we all knew Joe Lieberman was in trouble, but I can’t say I expected this. The NY Times today endorsed his rival, millionaire Ned Lamont. Lieberman’s opponent has been gaining strength in the last month, as democrats have been upset over Lieberman’s unflinching support of the Iraq war. The Times also points out that Lieberman has been unwilling to challenge President Bush on any issue. From the editorial:

Mr. Lieberman prides himself on being a legal thinker and a champion of civil liberties. But he appointed himself defender of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and the administration’s policy of holding hundreds of foreign citizens in prison without any due process. He seconded Mr. Gonzales’s sneering reference to the “quaint” provisions of the Geneva Conventions….. There is no use having a senator famous for getting along with Republicans if he never challenges them on issues of profound importance.

If Mr. Lieberman had once stood up and taken the lead in saying that there were some places a president had no right to take his country even during a time of war, neither he nor this page would be where we are today. But by suggesting that there is no principled space for that kind of opposition, he has forfeited his role as a conscience of his party, and has forfeited our support.

I’m not 100% sure who I’d vote for if I lived in Connecticut. Lieberman is not some faux democrat – he voted for the 1993 budget, he voted against the flag amendment and the gay marriage amendment. But on the war, he seems to think that there can be no criticism of the Bush administration, and in doing so, I understand why democrats would have no desire to see him the party’s nominee. Since Lieberman said he’d run as an independent if he lost the primary, this doesn’t sit well with democrats either. I certainly no longer think he is going to win his party’s nomination.

Slate has an article about how baseball cards aren’t worth anything anymore. Indeed, I glance at my cards every now and then and checked prices online and yeah, they’re worth a few bucks at most.

Apparently, the problem is two-fold. Baseball cards plummeted in popularity as the cards got fancier and more expensive and kids my age made sure to save their cards rather than be thrown away… so there are gluts of rookie cards of Griffey or whoever.

As I wrote earlier, Microsoft has confirmed the Zune, which is a new “family” of media players and also a new online music store, presumably. Engadget nicely summarizes the features and potential features of the device.

The problem is, adding new features can’t help in competing with the iPod. Why is that you ask? The iPod and iTunes are designed to accomplish a fairly simple – to listen to music. Ok, and podcasts too – along with videos on some devices. But there’s no voice recorder, no FM radio, no bluetooth, none of that. I suppose there are some interesting add-ons like the new Nike+iPod device. Never-the-less, it’s pretty much about music. And it’s the best music player out there, at least that seems to be the consensus.

So, why can’t you just add features and then people will want to buy the Zune instead? Well, I don’t think this will work because in my experience many if not most iPod owners don’t even use all the features of the iPod. Granted, my evidence is anecdotal. But I encounter many iTunes/iPod users who don’t use the following:

• Playlists
• Smart playlists
• Auto-syncing by playlists
• Auto-syncing of contacts/calendars (I personally sync my iCal to my iPod but I never look up appointments on my iPod.)
• Syncing/downloading/listening to Podcasts (Granted, maybe people just aren’t interested in listening to podcasts)

I’d wager than many people don’t use the video playback feature of the 5th Generation iPod that much either, nor do they look at that many photos on their iPods either.

So, if so many people ignore this many features of the iPod – which is the best selling music player – what makes any other manufacturer think they can lure people away from the iPod by adding more features? Microsoft apparently thinks adding WiFi to the player, or games is going to make it sell more. I’m fairly skeptical.

I’ll tell you how to compete with the iPod. Here’s how:

• Lighter/smaller than the iPod
• Something as good as iTunes (not WMP)
• User-replacable battery
• A quality interface
• Less expensive or the same price as an iPod of similar size/weight
• Playback of non-DRM’ed AAC files
• Work well on a Macintosh

That last one may seem like a joke, but if you can convince Mac-users to abandon the iPod, you’ve won. I have to admit that the more music people buy on iTunes the more locked-in they become to iPods. That’s the real effect of DRM. It benefits Apple way more than the record companies, but the record companies are too dumb to realize that.

I’m not much a power hitter. So when I got a hold of a pitch yesterday and drove it into the right center field gap, that’s fairly atypical. My previous homer was more of a pop fly that just landed in a good spot on the right field line. Even this one was really more of a triple with an error; the throw from the outfield sailed past the cut-off man and I came around third to score. We were down 2-0, so I cut it to 2-1. But we lost the game ultimately like 6-3 I think. We hit a lot of balls hard but right at people – and somehow a mush ball got into the game in the last inning. And there was a weird ruling about how shallow our outfielders can play which led to like 3-4 of their runs.

We came back to win our second game fairly easily. We’re playing really well – 3-1 this season so far. The defense is solid, and we’re hitting as well as ever. I think in our second game we must have strung together 4-5 two-out hits – putting up a 7 run inning.

I reached base every time… but none of my other at-bats were really all that great. I blooped a fly ball to center that dropped in… I got an infield hit to the left side. I walked on four pitches (that started the big inning.) I want more swings that feel like the triple though.

What’s really making a difference this season is how well the women on the team are hitting … nice line drives over the infield or hard grounders. And we have an infield configuration now with men at second base and shortstop that is very capable of turning double plays. I’m quite optimistic about the rest of the season…. though we lack any bench depth if people leave town or have to miss a game. Still, softball is even more fun when you win! :)

So, AMD announced today it will buy ATI for $5.4 billion. ATI makes graphic chips and cards for computers, among other things.

Apple is committed to using Intel chips in its products. ATI is currently providing graphics cards for almost all of Apple’s products. ATI is the only company that sells after-market graphics cards for G4/G5 Macs.

Will the new AMD owned ATI be so friendly to Apple who has embraced their competitor? Hard to say….

Let me preface this posting by saying that I’m not married to Apple’s products simply because Apple makes them. Yes, I think MacOS X is the best computer operating system, and therefore Macs are the best computers for the was majority of users.

So, despite my ownership of a growing number of Macs, and iPods for that matter, I’m happy to buy a non-Apple product if it’s better. For example, I’ve never bought an Apple mouse. I’ve always bought a 3-button/scroll wheel mouse from Logitech. They cost less and I love the scroll wheel. (Apple’s Mighty Mouse is too expensive.) Apple’s Airport base stations are far more expensive and less functional than a wireless router from Netgear or others, so I have a Netgear router.

So, having said all that, we come to Microsoft’s new would-be iPod competitor, the Zune. I seriously doubt this will create much of a dent in the iPod’s marketshare. Microsoft is not known for being cool. The Xbox team is behind this device, but this is no guarantee the design will be good. Witness the original xbox controller.

There’s a certain expression the press is using to describe it. They’ve used this expression for every other device that every other lame company has made. Here are just a few articles that have used this phrase.

Of course, the iPod will never be slain. As the aforementioned link says, why not just invent something new rather than trying to imitate the iPod’s success? Who wants an imitator when you can have the real thing?

Which brings us back to the Microsoft Zune. You know, Steve Jobs himself said earlier this year that Microsoft would have to make their own player. “What’s going to happen is that Microsoft is going to have to get into the hardware business of making MP3 players. This year. X-player, or whatever,” he said in Newsweek interview back in January.

So, seeing as how Apple saw this coming, I have to believe the iPod is a moving target, and that new iPods will bring new and more innovative features. And the iPod is so entrenched now, with accessories and a whole mini-economy, I doubt the Zune will make much dent. Sony’s efforts have all failed to date. Microsoft can leverage their Windows monopoly, but people still have to go out and buy the Zunes and I doubt it captures the public’s imagination. Certainly overloading the device with features most people won’t use won’t do it.

One thing I can almost be sure of is that I personally won’t be buying a Zune, because like most of the other also-ran MP3 players, it probably won’t work with a Macintosh. So, that’ll be a deal breaker for me. (I wonder what fraction of iPod sales go to Mac users….)

I recently re-watched the movie Thirteen Days, and subsequently have been reading through The Kennedy Tapes – Inside the White House During the Cuban Missile Crisis. The contrast between the thoughtful, deliberative policy debate back then, and the knee-jerk, make-the-fact-fit-our-plan policy of today is astounding.

The most tell-tale line is something former President Eisenhower told President Kennedy (Kennedy consulted Eisenhower regularly – even though they were of different parties. Do you think George W. Bush ever talked to President Clinton about terrorism / al Qaeda?). Eisenhower said to Kennedy after the Bay of Pigs fiasco, “…before you approved this plan did you have everybody in front of you debating the thing so that you could get the pros and cons yourself and then made the decision….?”

Someone should ask the same question of our current president, because I seriously doubt anyone inside the White House ever seriously mentioned the cons of invading Iraq. I suppose Colin Powell made his “you break it, you own it” statement or whatever it was. Still, nuanced debate is not something that exists in the current administration. We get things like the One Percent Doctrine instead.

I think history will judge the Bush Administration to be amongst the worst ever.

Why is it so many things are designed to topple over with the slightest breath? I look in my bathroom and 80% of the items are tall with a small base and top-heavy. Things fall over every day. You would think the Proctor & Gambles of the world could invent packaging with a wider base … there’s a fortune to be made. But it did take decades for them to invent a better toothpaste cap or the sideways tab on aluminum coke cans, so I suppose I shouldn’t hold my breath.

Here’s another article that says somehow the iPod and iTunes are doomed unless they are “opened up” to other formats/players. I’m afraid this doesn’t make any sense to me.

Apple doesn’t make a dime on what it sells from the iTunes store. My guess is at best they break even. Apple created the music store to do one thing – sell iPods. It seems to be working. Music bought at iTunes only works on the iPod. iPods can only play legally downloaded music from the iTunes Music Store. They of course also play, WAV, AIFF, MP3, and AAC files – most people “rip” music from their own CD collection anyway.

The notion that Apple should be forced to “open up” the store in absurd. This has all started with this French law that was passed recently, though in a “watered-down” form. People act as if this law is somehow a marvelous gift to consumers.

However, Apple’s only interest in making a great online music store is, repeat after me, so they can sell more iPods. If iTunes music can be bought on any crappy old mp3 player, then they have no incentive. Ergo, the consumer doesn’t win. The profit motive I’m afraid is what drives the company, not benevolence.

And no one is forcing anyone to buy an iPod or to use the iTunes music store. Most people go out and buy CDs anyway – most music on iPods is ripped from people’s own CD collections.

If you want to see how great an “open” format is – check out all the also-ran music stores and the also-ran music players. They’re all based on the same Microsoft-DRM and they all are unimpressive. Could it be that none of them have any real incentive to make a great site because a) selling music online isn’t profitable, and b) the music stores aren’t pushing any particular one model of mp3 player but an array of these Windows Media enabled music players? By the way, none of these stores work with Macintoshes. And that’s no one’s fault but Microsoft / whoever created the online store. That’s somehow more open than iPod/iTunes?

I suppose one could argue that if Apple let the iPod play these Windows-Media DRMed songs, maybe somehow the other stores would be less lame. I don’t know. A song sold online is a song sold online. Why it’s better for consumers to be able to buy the same song at 5 sites isn’t clear to me. It’s not like they can compete on price, Apple is having a hell of a time keeping the music companies to $0.99 a song.

I also suppose the lack of success of these other music stores is that none of the work on the iPod (Apple’s fault) and to a lesser extent on the Macintosh (not Apple’s fault.) I suppose if Apple “opened” the iPod to these other stores’ formats they might gain acceptance. But again, selling music online isn’t profitable in itself.

Apple, like all corporations, is motivated by self-interest and they use iTunes to drive sales of iPods. Legislating away this key linkage undermines their business model. If you don’t like it, well, go buy some other player and use some other music store. People can already do that. Yet, consumers seem to prefer the iPod by a large margin.

Well, Aubrey Huff certainly made an instant impact for the Astros. Acquired from Tampa Bay over the All Star break, he hit a 3 run homer last night, helping the Astros win 5-1 over the Marlins.

Morgan Ensberg apparently has been hurting for months, some kind of shoulder problem, and he went on the DL. They called up Luke Scott to take his spot on the roster.

So, we have three great starters in Oswalt, Clemens, and Pettitte. Pettitte had a rotten first half, but he’s bound to improve. The Astros bullpen has been very inconsistent – either pitching great or giving up 8 run leads. They too are bound to settle down.

As I am fond of saying, the Astros are a mere 10 game winning streak away from being right there in the thick of the playoff hunt. The National League is weak, with the exception of the Mets, and with the wild card, anything is possible. Personally, I think the Astros can catch the Cardinals if they find it soon. It should be an exciting second half.

I bought 2 tickets in the Astros “10 for 20″ deal – so I’ll be attending a good number of games here now that we’re past the all star break.